Faulty logic

“Associated with!”

A change in yield or agricultural output that is associated with an intervention doesn’t mean that it is necessarily that intervention that caused the change.

Sometimes researchers find an association between something that is done, and something that happens.

When there is a link between people using an intervention and a particular outcome, the intervention may or may not be the cause.

For example, in some countries ice cream sales and drowning are linked. When more ice-cream is sold, more people drown. That does not mean that eating ice cream causes people to drown. A more likely explanation is that people eat more ice cream when it is hot and they swim more when it is hot. So telling people to stop eating ice cream (an intervention) is very unlikely to reduce the number of people who drown!

BEWARE of claims that an intervention has an effect because using the intervention is associated with an agricultural change.

REMEMBER: Think about whether you can be sure that there aren’t other reasons for the association.